《李光耀觀世界》的中文版上市﹐要 313 塊港幣一本﹐比免費的《信懷南看世界》貴很多。
李光耀是個了不起的政治家﹐1965 年新加坡被馬來西亞掃地出門後﹐發憤圖強﹐把一個沒有自然資源的城市﹐打造成世界上最小但最有份量的國家。他這本書的第一章﹐花了 50 多頁談中國﹐然後才談美國﹐歐洲﹐日本﹐韓國﹐印度和東南亞的鄰國。由此可見﹐在李光耀的心目中﹐中國的地位﹐及中國和新加坡的關係多麼重要。
李光耀用了一個 2011 年在廣東省烏坎漁村發生的暴動事件來引證他對中國的政治有異於很多西方國家﹐尤其是美國對中國政治制度的看法。
2011 年秋天﹐烏坎的開發商和地方官勾結奪佔了農民的土地並從中獲利。2011 年 9 月﹐少數的農民走上街頭抗議。12 月﹐一個因抗議而被警方拘留的村民在拘留所死亡。這下群情大嘩﹐兩萬多群眾走上街頭﹐把地方官員趕走﹐設立路障﹐用簡單的武器裝備自己﹐情勢看起來非常嚴重的樣子。但結果呢﹖
結果是廣東當局派了一個省委副書記來烏坎處理這件事。最後當局承認村民的行為合法﹐歸還部份土地給村民﹐村長改選﹐由領頭抗議的高票當選新村長。
李光耀說﹐當烏坎抗議事件發生的時候﹐西方國家和很多民主人士都把這件事當成一葉知秋的大事來看﹐認為中共的控制力在削弱。但類似的事天天都在中國大陸發生﹐根本不可能會發展成全國性的運動。烏坎事件﹐一個廣東省的省委副書記就可以擺平﹐為什麼﹖
李光耀認為中國幾千年的傳統﹐老百姓的政治理想是只要有一個強大而穩定的中央政府﹐問題就不大。就連這次烏坎事件﹐村民都打出橫條表明他們並非反中央政府。
我年輕的時候在台灣﹐非常嚮往美國式的民主﹐但年齡越大﹐看的事情越多﹐我現在認為像中國這樣大﹐人口這樣多的國家﹐一人一票的民主﹐不一定比一個好皇帝治理下﹐有個強大﹐清廉而有效率的政府好多少。我講這話﹐一定有人無限上綱說我在鼓吹專制﹐我早就說過﹐專制是滾水燙螃蟹﹐你我一下水就掛了。民主則是溫水煮青蛙﹐咱們在溫水裡太久﹐已經習慣了。
李光耀的意思是說中國有 5000 年的歷史﹐一人一票式的民主根本不是中華文化的一部份﹐在一般中國老百姓的心中﹐天高皇帝遠﹐只要中央政府強大﹐一人一票的迫切性不像美國和西方國家想像中的那麼重要。我認為這恐怕是美國佬四處樹敵﹐吃力不討好的根本原因。老美認為她的那套置之於四海皆準。中國大陸不甩老美﹐自己搞自己那套﹐也沒見把國家搞垮。台灣學美國那套學到走火入魔﹐民主變成民粹。民主祖師爺的美國也像是王小二過年﹕氣數已盡﹐一年不如一年了。而香港現在動不動就上街的民主﹐我看到後來也是成事不足敗事有餘。從前做殖民地的時候怎麼不見人走上街頭呢﹖難道老中天生就是欺軟怕硬嗎﹖
在《李光耀觀世界》這本書裡他提到他見過中國所有的國家領導人。從毛澤東到鄧小平﹐到江澤民﹐到胡錦濤﹐到習近平。2007 年11 月李光耀訪問北京﹐他本來要求見另外一位中國的領導人﹐但北京方面建議他和習近平會個面﹐由此可見在 2007 年中共已經把習當成接班人了。李對習的第一印象是習是個「大氣」的人。「大氣」是什麼意思﹖李的解釋是﹕「大氣的反面就是小氣」。
在他見過的中國領導人中﹐李光耀對鄧小平特別推崇﹐他講了一個故事。
1978 年鄧小平訪問了曼谷和吉隆坡後﹐到新加坡訪問。李認為鄧的這次訪問東南亞三國開了他的眼界。他原以為這三國都是窮國家﹐但發現這三個城市比當時中國任何一個城市都進步。後來鄧恭喜李﹐李問為什麼﹖鄧說你們把新加坡打造成一個漂亮的城市。李說﹕我們原是中國南方沒有土地的農民﹐而你們有專家﹐學者和資源﹐你們應該做得比新加坡好太多。鄧聽後沒說話﹐用銳利的眼光看著李。1992 年鄧在有名的南巡中敦促中國領導階層要向世界學習﹐特別要向新加坡學習﹐要做得比他們更好。李對自己說﹕「嗯﹐他沒忘記我對他說的那句話。」
懷南補記﹕
這篇文章至少是一個月前寫的﹐那時候要等《多瑙河上載酒行》登完後才能登這篇文章﹐當然沒料到這篇文章上報時正好遇到香港發生「佔中」玩真的這種事。
香港發生大規模群眾上街的事﹐如果只看老共的中央電視臺﹐好像沒這回事的樣子 (今天開始﹐中央電視臺 CCTV4 已經開始當主要新聞播了。表示老共已經想通了 懷南補筆 10/2/2014)﹐但看舊金山發行的星島日報的照片﹐陣仗有些像六四天安門事件的翻版。
前幾天經過一家常去的書店﹐老闆認識我﹐問﹕「大師對香港有什麼看法﹖」我說﹕「看我的文章和上我的網站就知道了。」既然有人不恥(不是不齒)下問(不是瞎問)﹐大廝就當仁不讓發表一點絕對沒啥作用的寶貴意見﹕
第一﹐聽說汪洋已經銜命南下坐陣處理此事。這件事可不是派個廣東省委副書記就能擺得平的。
第二﹐上街的香港人也算是運氣﹐這種事如果發生在西藏﹐新疆或中國任何一省﹐解放軍或武警早就進城了。
第三﹐香港抗議人士要的是一次到位像台灣那樣一人一票的民主﹐老共有他自己的盤算﹐加了些門檻和機關在裡面。「一國兩制」本來就是在沒辦法裡想出來的權宜之計。其實一開始就讓香港人民主學台灣﹐張三李四﹐一人一票﹐阿貓阿狗都可以出來競選﹐最後民主變民粹﹐像台灣一樣搞得烏煙瘴氣。到時候正好給老共有借口派武警或解放軍進場修理﹐ Voila﹗搞不好就提早一國一制(治)啦﹗老共是個死要面子的強權政黨﹐現在騎虎難下﹐Iron Mouth Xin (信鐵嘴)不必夜觀天象都知道香港佔中的結局﹕一定是兩敗俱傷﹐沒有贏家﹐倒霉的是那些靠做生意養家糊口的小市民。我很奇怪﹐台灣﹐香港又不像大陸﹐有那麼多人有空上街抗議這﹐抗議那﹐頭頭們幹嘛不出來選個什麼代表﹐正式改變現狀﹖吆喝上街是偷懶的表現。
以上就是信大廝的寶貴意見。信不信由你。
"像中國這樣大﹐人口這樣多的國家﹐一人一票的民主﹐不一定比一個好皇帝治理下﹐有個強大﹐清廉而有效率的政府好多少。"
Exactly, BBX
Plus PRC "ladder" system of succession, if monitored properly (note that this is a big "if")
then the management acquires better skill and knowledge than a running lantern game of voting game.
With US election system, what do we see about the White House?
The man/woman sitting in the Oval Room has to rely on his "advisors", namely, CIA, National Security etc. etc.
His/her time is a count-down, so he/she can only focus on things that can show to the people of achievement.
Since old time, Chinese people knows that "Go to work upon sunrise, Come back and rest upon sunset, what an emperor has to do with me?"
About HK, it was said that about 10,000+ people were demonstrating. What is that compared to 8 million of population or 6 million of qualified voters? Not even a droplet. Just that the dog that barks arouses attention, especially for Western media who love to broadcast such "news".
To be honest with you, BBX, even if Beijing allows such election, I am shameful to say, the outcome will even be worst than Chen Shui Bian. We don't have the mentality nor the upbringing for any true leader in HK. The British purposely set the environment such that HK people are just administrator, not planner or leader. The people putting up the show
do not actually want election. They are just trouble-maker pulled by US. Why, they knew BJ won't negotiate with them and what they do now will further reinforce BJ determination. That is, these people actually don't want a solution, they just like to create a crisis for BJ. Dealing with communist is not easy, but not impossible. You got to let them get something, typically have face, to get what you want. Look at Portugal, the big winner when Macau was returned.
They just packed up their benefit from BJ when the time came, leaving headaches everywhere for BJ to resolve.
If I were BJ, I will just abandon HK, taking away all the benefits, establish another financial centre in Macau or Shenzhen, or let some robbers loose to HK. Just let HK wither, and see who lose deeply and deadly.
My friends in HK are already complaining and reconsidering moving back to Canada for retirement :))
Louisa T 10/2/2014 Dear Louisa:
Thanks for sharing.
Since you are from Hong Kong, I am sure you are more qualified to speak up on this HK issue than most of us.
I was working in the private sector in Hong Kong for 18 month during late 80's. My impression on Hong Kong at that time was two-fold:
On one hand, I admired
their hard working people. I was most impressed by the number of trucks were still busy on highway during the Christmas and New Year holidays. I told my boss then: "If you try to get anything done during the Christmas/New Year holidays in the United States, forget it﹗The offices most likely are empty during that time of each year.
But on the other hand, I was kind of sadden by the fact that the attitude of most people in Hong Kong were indifferent to political affairs -- A typical 殖民地順民mentality. You pointed out this was the result of the purposely designed by the British Masters. I totally agree with you on your perspectives.
When Taiwan was a colony of Japan, Taiwanese were purposely guided by the Japanese Masters to study Medical-related fields. To get into studying political Science or Economics was hard. The reason was the same the British did to her 殖民地順民. They (British and Japan) did not want their 殖民地順民 turned out to be thinkers, planners, leaders,strategists, lawyers ....
I think 陳太 (陳方安生) is the proud product under the British planning, and in Taiwan, here you have 李登輝 (I forgot his Japanese name, and not particularly wanted to remember it either).
The difference between Hong Kong and Taiwan when they both "returned to their Motherlands" was this: Because KMT knew Taiwanese was not ready in governing themselves, so the Mainlander (最後一代內地人的父母親) did a good job for a period of time to build the country up, and in deed also cultivated the native Taiwanese. Unfortunately 小蔣死得太早﹐沒想到李登輝接了班。The rest as they said, is history.
When people leapfrog from 順民 to 自由人 under a democratic system too soon, they are not ready to convert to a rational thinking peaceful reformer immediately. Look at the daily political soap opera and the social disorder of Taiwan in the past 15 years. I am afraid the people of Hong Kong is going to suffer the same as the majority of Taiwan people are suffering.
Now you people in Hong Kong does have one thing that we Taiwanese doesn't have -- You have PRC and PLA in your back are watching. Never underestimate 老共平亂的決心和蠻勁。Suddenly, 佔中 becomes the major news of CCTV4 today. It is obviously to me that 老共高層已經拍板定調﹕非法聚會必須停止。如果香港示威者什麼都學台灣﹐認為習近平像馬英九一樣好欺負﹐那就要吃大虧了。不信走著瞧。
懷南敬覆 10/2/2014